Baseball counts everything. If you can quantify it, then people will count it. And the most important number that baseball fans, players, coaches and so on are counting is the number of days until Opening Day.
And thank god that number is down to zero.
Many teams will be throwing their first pitch of the 2011 season Thursday, so here’s my predictions for division winners, wild cards and the eventual World Series champion:
American League
East: Boston Red Sox - As a Yankee fan, this choice kills me, but it’s hard to pick against the team in the division that arguably had the best off season by picking up first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and outfielder Carl Crawford and has the division’s best starting rotation. That rotation consists of Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz, and if those five can stay healthy for the majority of the season, which wasn’t the case last year, opposing teams will have to find ways to make those pitchers throw a lot of early pitches and defeat the bullpen. The problem with that is the Red Sox’ bullpen, headlined by Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon, isn’t too shabby. The only issue that will hold Boston back is injuries, which killed its chances for the post season last year. Let’s see if David Ortiz and the Red Sox’ stout lineup can get back to the playoffs after having to watch October from the couch.
Central: Minnesota Twins - The AL Central is and will be the Twins’ division to lose for the next few years. They have a solid rotation, a decent bullpen that will have Joe Nathan back as the closer and an offense that knows how to produce runs. Minnesota won’t be the flashy team that grabs all of the headlines for things other than being able to consistently win, but that’s the way this small-market team likes it and has won the division in each of the past two years (granted the 2009 division title was won in a memorable one-game playoff that was decided in extra innings). Plus, I don’t see any other team in this division to pose much of a threat, so this is probably the easiest division to predict.
West: Texas Rangers – The defending AL champs shouldn’t have a hard time winning the West even though the Angels should pose a bigger threat this season than they did last year. The Rangers have one of the best offenses in all of the land in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They have a solid infield, although questions still loom with Adrian Beltre at third, and their outfield is probably one of the best in all of baseball. My only major concern is how will the starting rotation do without Cliff Lee? Yes, the rotation was good enough a year ago to win the division, but Lee was the key ingredient to the team’s first pennant. Also, Lee was a great mentor for opening-day starter C.J. Wilson, so it’ll be interesting how the Californian lefty does in his second season as a starter. Plus, Wilson is the only lefty in that rotation that I trust as Derek Holland and Matt Harrison haven’t proven much as starters. Other than that, the bullpen looks like it should be solid once again, and closer Neftali Feliz has turned into one of the league’s premier closers. So expect big things from him. Last year was a treat for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and this year should be one full of high expectations that shouldn’t be satisfied with just a winning season or a playoff berth.
Wild Card: New York Yankees – Go ahead and call me bias for picking my team to be the wild card after having an off season that didn’t produce much other than Russell Martin causing people to wonder what the starting rotation is going to look like before the team tries to make a big deal before the trade deadline. But let’s look at the facts. Other than the questions about the starting rotation, New York returns an infield full of gold glovers and some decent outfielders with pretty good speed, most notably being the newly-named leadoff hitter Brett Gardner. You know the Yankees are going to score runs in that bandbox in the Bronx, and other teams are going to have problems mounting comebacks with Rafael Soriano and future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera in the bullpen. But, most importantly, this group of Yankees for the most part knows how to win.
National League
East: Philadelphia Phillies – Like the AL Central, the NL East should be the named team’s division to lose. How can anyone pick against a team with possibly the greatest rotation in the history of baseball? The first four pitchers – Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt – have the potential to win 15 games each, and Joe Blanton, the Phillies’ No. 5 pitcher, would be a No 2 or 3 pitcher in almost any other team’s rotation. The only drawback for Philadelphia is its injuries to start the year. Chase Utley and Brad Lidge will be out to start the year, but those two temporary losses shouldn’t result in too many on-field losses.
Central: Cincinnati Reds – This was a hard division to decide because there are three teams whom I could see coming out victorious, but I have to believe that the Reds should still be able to build upon last year’s success. They have a solid starting rotation, a good bullpen, a nice but not too overly impressive of a lineup and a solid defense. All of those things add up to a playoff-worthy team, and I just don’t see the St. Louis Cardinals bouncing back from last year’s woes and the Milwaukee Brewers just aren’t quite good enough to win the division, but I do see them making the playoffs.
West: San Francisco Giants – Everyone has been talking about how great the Phillies’ starting rotation will be, but let’s not forget whom the Giants will be throwing. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito led this team to a World Series title last year, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be able to do so again this year. Also, the Giants are returning a solid lineup starring catcher Buster Posey and have a good bullpen that will be joined by bearded closer Brian Wilson shortly after the season’s start. The defending champs should never be counted out of the playoff equation, unless that team pulls a Florida Marlins and lets everyone go after winning a title, and that has to be the case this year.
Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have a good offense that should be able to scrap together some tough wins, but I loved what they did with their starting rotation. Milwaukee’s starting five seemed to have been completed with the addition of Zack Greinke, who should benefit from playing in the NL, and Shaun Marcum. Although the Brewers’ rotation won’t be as dominant as the one in Philadelphia, it should be able to carry this team to the playoffs in a tight wild-card race.
World Series Champion: Philadelphia Phillies – Again, it is so hard to pick against this starting rotation, and pitching wins championships. What’s nice is that the Phillies have a good offensive team with experience. They have represented the NL in the World Series in two of the past three years, and this pitching staff should be able to help bring the World Series title to Philadelphia for the second time in the last four years.
That’s my two cents. What’s yours?
